FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

381.44 – 250.34

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 164.58Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 7.5Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 209.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 87.73Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 116.56Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 46.05Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 3361, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 3361, 2106

Auto

80.0 21%

Teleop

214.9 57%

Endgame

82.3 22%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 401, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 401, 3258

Auto

45.9 19%

Teleop

138.3 58%

Endgame

56.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score381.4pts

Blue projected score250.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.1
Score range: 213–418
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 204.1.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601Season APEX485.2

80Auto45.9

214.9Teleop138.3

82.3Endgame56.1

20Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	49
teleop	216	44
endgame	70	51
foul	0	5
total	382	149

Result

Final score

382 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 51 pts

Match videos

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