FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.63 – 245.47

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 169.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 11.37Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 213.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 86.52Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 114.51Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 44.44Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 3361, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 3361, 2106

Auto

79.9 20%

Teleop

230.3 59%

Endgame

79.8 20%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 401, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 401, 3258

Auto

42.6 18%

Teleop

140.4 60%

Endgame

51.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score394.6pts

Blue projected score245.5pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.2
Score range: 209–431
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 632 vs event baseline 201.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601Season APEX485.2

79.9Auto42.6

230.3Teleop140.4

79.8Endgame51.9

10Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	61
teleop	195	140
endgame	106	35
foul	0	5
total	391	241

Result

Final score

391 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 4 pts

Match videos

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