FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.6 – 74.56

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448 ±10.5

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 65.3Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 63.41Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 24.89Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±11.6

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 36.64Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 25.04Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 12.88Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4472, 449, 8230

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 449, 8230

Auto

19.6 13%

Teleop

85.1 57%

Endgame

45.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2363, 2890, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 2890, 2186

Auto

20.0 26%

Teleop

33.0 43%

Endgame

24.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.6pts

Blue projected score74.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79
Score range: 56–173
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448Season APEX228.8

19.6Auto20

85.1Teleop33

45.6Endgame24

21Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	31
teleop	161	77
endgame	78	38
foul	25	10
total	299	156

Result

Final score

299 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 pts

Match videos

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