FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167 – 174.64

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.9

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 75.75Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 30.24Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 61.01Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.2 ±9.8

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 90.18Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 37.23Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 47.23Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1731, 539, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

167 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 539, 5338

Auto

34.2 21%

Teleop

77.8 48%

Endgame

49.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 1895, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 1895, 2377

Auto

45.9 27%

Teleop

97.1 57%

Endgame

27.9 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167pts

Blue projected score174.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.6
Score range: 148–194
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 105.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.8Season APEX449.2

34.2Auto45.9

77.8Teleop97.1

49.1Endgame27.9

5Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	55
teleop	40	41
endgame	48	39
foul	0	15
total	140	150

Result

Final score

140 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.