FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.84 – 100.13

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 82.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±11

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 30.1Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 18.8Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 22.94Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±11.6

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 34.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 24.33Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 41.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2363, 2890, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 2890, 4638

Auto

21.5 32%

Teleop

22.0 33%

Endgame

23.0 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3258, 611, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 611, 5353

Auto

26.0 28%

Teleop

45.7 49%

Endgame

22.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score100.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.3
Score range: 53–119
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.7Season APEX191.3

21.5Auto26

22Teleop45.7

23Endgame22.5

84Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	32
teleop	91	21
endgame	75	6
foul	5	0
total	195	59

Result

Final score

195 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 82.1 pts

Match videos

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