FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.12 – 117.69

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.8 ±11

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 35.64Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 24.22Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 45.26Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.8 ±9.8

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 62.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 12.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 42.61Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 620, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 620, 526

Auto

18.9 18%

Teleop

55.6 54%

Endgame

27.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 122, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 122, 5243

Auto

22.6 20%

Teleop

59.2 53%

Endgame

30.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.1pts

Blue projected score117.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.6
Score range: 86–137
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 102.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.8Season APEX509.8

18.9Auto22.6

55.6Teleop59.2

27.7Endgame30

17Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	22
teleop	72	91
endgame	10	61
foul	25	15
total	148	189

Result

Final score

148 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Match videos

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