FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.64 – 94.17

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.2 ±9.8

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 86.77Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 33.54Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 46.33Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±11.6

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 32.73Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 22.33Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 39.11Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 1895, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 1895, 2377

Auto

44.9 27%

Teleop

90.3 55%

Endgame

28.5 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3258, 611, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 611, 5353

Auto

22.5 25%

Teleop

42.3 47%

Endgame

24.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.6pts

Blue projected score94.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.5
Score range: 76–185
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.2Season APEX191.3

44.9Auto22.5

90.3Teleop42.3

28.5Endgame24.3

7Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	41
teleop	126	64
endgame	29	16
foul	5	10
total	212	131

Result

Final score

212 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Match videos

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