FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.16 – 72.29

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.9

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 76.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 29.16Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 61.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±11

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 30.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 19.02Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 22.98Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1731, 539, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 539, 5338

Auto

33.2 21%

Teleop

80.8 51%

Endgame

44.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2363, 2890, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 2890, 4638

Auto

17.7 27%

Teleop

25.8 40%

Endgame

21.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.9
Score range: 54–185
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 101.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.8Season APEX224.7

33.2Auto17.7

80.8Teleop25.8

44.8Endgame21.7

11Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	41
teleop	79	11
endgame	71	29
foul	0	0
total	194	81

Result

Final score

194 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Match videos

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