FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.33 – 120.82

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448 ±10.5

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 20.76Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 60.48Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 62.09Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.8 ±9.8

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 63.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 13.8Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 43.7Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8230, 449, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 449, 4472

Auto

20.1 15%

Teleop

80.6 58%

Endgame

37.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 122, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 122, 5243

Auto

21.8 19%

Teleop

63.3 54%

Endgame

32.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.3pts

Blue projected score120.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.5
Score range: 103–161
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448Season APEX509.8

20.1Auto21.8

80.6Teleop63.3

37.3Endgame32.1

22Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	29
teleop	92	44
endgame	59	23
foul	0	15
total	170	111

Result

Final score

170 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Match videos

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