FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.72 – 87.84

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 105.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 23.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 92.04Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.8 ±11

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 30.51Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 17.81Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 39.52Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 2068, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 2068, 1908

Auto

50.6 24%

Teleop

131.9 61%

Endgame

32.8 15%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 620, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 620, 526

Auto

20.7 24%

Teleop

41.9 49%

Endgame

23.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.7pts

Blue projected score87.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.9
Score range: 70–239
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 99.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.4Season APEX300.8

50.6Auto20.7

131.9Teleop41.9

32.8Endgame23

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	15
teleop	160	111
endgame	62	49
foul	10	5
total	293	180

Result

Final score

293 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 pts

Match videos

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