FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.83 – 173.62

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.2 ±9.8

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 88.17Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 35.85Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 45.81Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.9

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 32.16Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 78.89Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 62.57Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 1895, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 1895, 2377

Auto

43.5 26%

Teleop

85.8 52%

Endgame

35.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 1731, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 1731, 5338

Auto

39.4 24%

Teleop

78.3 48%

Endgame

46.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.8pts

Blue projected score173.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 150–194
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 110.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.2Season APEX531.8

43.5Auto39.4

85.8Teleop78.3

35.4Endgame46.8

15Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	48
teleop	87	118
endgame	12	116
foul	5	0
total	169	282

Result

Final score

169 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Match videos

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