FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.41 – 168.76

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 7.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.4 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 114.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 33.34Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 102.32Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.2 ±9.8

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 88.11Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 35.63Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 45.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 2068, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 2068, 1908

Auto

53.0 22%

Teleop

147.6 62%

Endgame

36.0 15%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 1895, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 1895, 2377

Auto

47.0 29%

Teleop

86.8 53%

Endgame

29.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250.4pts

Blue projected score168.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.7
Score range: 150–269
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 108.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.4Season APEX449.2

53Auto47

147.6Teleop86.8

36Endgame29.5

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	22
teleop	140	82
endgame	44	71
foul	0	5
total	247	180

Result

Final score

247 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 7.3 pts

Match videos

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