FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.13 – 126.62

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.9

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 74.55Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 28.07Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 58.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.8 ±9.8

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 65.16Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 15.78Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 45.68Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1731, 539, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 539, 5338

Auto

36.8 24%

Teleop

71.2 45%

Endgame

48.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 122, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 122, 5243

Auto

21.8 18%

Teleop

63.6 53%

Endgame

34.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.1pts

Blue projected score126.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.5
Score range: 108–180
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.8Season APEX509.8

36.8Auto21.8

71.2Teleop63.6

48.5Endgame34.6

9Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	27
teleop	107	77
endgame	38	28
foul	5	0
total	197	132

Result

Final score

197 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Match videos

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