FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.36 – 47.21

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±11.7

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 13.71Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 13.79Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 28.86Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292 ±11

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 19.71Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 13.71Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 13.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6882, 9403, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6882, 9403, 1908

Auto

13.6 27%

Teleop

20.2 40%

Endgame

16.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 116, 122, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 116, 122, 3258

Auto

13.6 34%

Teleop

13.4 34%

Endgame

12.6 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.4pts

Blue projected score47.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: 37–66
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 57.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.8Season APEX292

13.6Auto13.6

20.2Teleop13.4

16.3Endgame12.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	10
teleop	81	18
endgame	34	11
foul	0	5
total	125	44

Result

Final score

125 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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