FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.73 – 47.43

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.1 ±11.6

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 9.43Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 4.44Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 10.86Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.7 ±12.4

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 27.14Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 10.86Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 9.43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2363, 1885, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 1885, 2068

Auto

14.2 61%

Teleop

5.6 24%

Endgame

3.5 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 2988, 612

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 2988, 612

Auto

23.1 54%

Teleop

10.9 25%

Endgame

9.1 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.7pts

Blue projected score47.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.7
Score range: 16–56
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 50.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.1Season APEX355.7

14.2Auto23.1

5.6Teleop10.9

3.5Endgame9.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	49
teleop	24	88
endgame	22	20
foul	0	0
total	62	157

Result

Final score

62 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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