FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.65 – 39.79

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±11

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 48.98Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 22.29Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 34.38Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±12.2

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 5.14Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 16.84Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 17.81Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2377, 8230, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 8230, 1895

Auto

20.6 20%

Teleop

56.0 55%

Endgame

26.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9403, 1885, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9403, 1885, 2890

Auto

11.1 34%

Teleop

16.0 49%

Endgame

5.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score39.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.9
Score range: 22–124
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 98.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.7Season APEX184.1

20.6Auto11.1

56Teleop16

26.1Endgame5.6

0Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	57	20
endgame	12	29
foul	5	5
total	91	69

Result

Final score

91 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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