FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.88 – 112.62

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±11

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 32.82Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 35.89Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 0.17Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.8 ±11

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 58.21Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 35.06Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 19.35Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 3258, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 3258, 2534

Auto

13.7 20%

Teleop

28.7 42%

Endgame

25.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4472, 3373, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 3373, 4638

Auto

14.9 14%

Teleop

59.6 56%

Endgame

31.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.9pts

Blue projected score112.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.7
Score range: 51–131
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 98.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.8Season APEX217.8

13.7Auto14.9

28.7Teleop59.6

25.2Endgame31.2

69Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	27
teleop	18	81
endgame	5	53
foul	0	20
total	47	181

Result

Final score

47 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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