FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.56 – 24

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.3 ±11.2

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -1.39Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 10.59Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 101.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.2 ±11

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 8.94Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 20.58Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -5.52Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10449, 122, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 122, 9072

Auto

30.4 30%

Teleop

62.9 62%

Endgame

8.7 9%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5587, 2068, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

24 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 2068, 116

Auto

15.4 57%

Teleop

15.7 58%

Endgame

-4.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.6pts

Blue projected score24pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.6
Score range: 6–129
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 97.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.3Season APEX245.2

30.4Auto15.4

62.9Teleop15.7

8.7Endgame-4

40Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	16
teleop	111	29
endgame	33	18
foul	0	5
total	168	68

Result

Final score

168 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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