FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.82 – 143.13

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.4 ±13.3

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 8.55Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 27.73Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 18.54Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.8 ±10.7

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 76.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 5.07Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 61.77Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3359, 539, 2988

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3359, 539, 2988

Auto

15.7 30%

Teleop

10.2 20%

Endgame

26.0 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 1793, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 1793, 449

Auto

18.3 14%

Teleop

75.4 56%

Endgame

41.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.8pts

Blue projected score143.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.3
Score range: 37–161
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 97.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.4Season APEX545.8

15.7Auto18.3

10.2Teleop75.4

26Endgame41.8

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	34	118
endgame	36	27
foul	0	0
total	86	163

Result

Final score

86 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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