FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.12 – 122.23

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±11.1

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 32.51Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 31.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 63.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.7 ±10.5

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 88.89Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 11.51Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 21.83Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 526, 2363, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 526, 2363, 5549

Auto

27.1 22%

Teleop

58.3 47%

Endgame

38.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1908, 8326, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1908, 8326, 620

Auto

16.9 14%

Teleop

77.9 66%

Endgame

23.6 20%

Strengths

· 1908 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.1pts

Blue projected score122.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.9
Score range: 105–144
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 97.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.7Season APEX366.7

27.1Auto16.9

58.3Teleop77.9

38.7Endgame23.6

79Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	43
teleop	63	32
endgame	43	8
foul	15	15
total	149	98

Result

Final score

149 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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