FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.9 – 72.09

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.4 ±10.5

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 29.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 16.93Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 96.44Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±12.2

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 45.59Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 31.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -4.67Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 8230, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 8230, 9072

Auto

38.3 29%

Teleop

78.8 59%

Endgame

17.2 13%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2377, 6882, 10449

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 6882, 10449

Auto

18.9 27%

Teleop

40.0 58%

Endgame

10.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.9pts

Blue projected score72.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.8
Score range: 55–160
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 96.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.4Season APEX199.5

38.3Auto18.9

78.8Teleop40

17.2Endgame10.6

22Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	24
teleop	109	44
endgame	58	34
foul	0	5
total	200	107

Result

Final score

200 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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