FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.32 – 107.97

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±9.8

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 54.07Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 6.71Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 59.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.9 ±11.7

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 42.11Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 33.73Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 32.13Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4472, 122, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 122, 5338

Auto

28.1 24%

Teleop

64.4 55%

Endgame

23.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5243, 1895, 612

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5243, 1895, 612

Auto

20.8 21%

Teleop

57.5 57%

Endgame

23.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.3pts

Blue projected score108pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.3
Score range: 91–137
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 95.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.8Season APEX235.9

28.1Auto20.8

64.4Teleop57.5

23.6Endgame23

74Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	28
teleop	112	53
endgame	42	40
foul	0	0
total	182	121

Result

Final score

182 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.