FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.38 – 20.64

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.6 ±11.6

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 13.48Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 38.15Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 32.75Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.8 ±12.2

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 3.88Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 15.58Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 1.18Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1885, 5353, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1885, 5353, 3258

Auto

17.5 24%

Teleop

36.1 49%

Endgame

19.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5587, 611, 1793

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 611, 1793

Auto

9.8 62%

Teleop

8.7 55%

Endgame

-2.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.4pts

Blue projected score20.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 4–101
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 95.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.6Season APEX156.8

17.5Auto9.8

36.1Teleop8.7

19.9Endgame-2.7

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	16
teleop	67	40
endgame	43	26
foul	0	0
total	136	82

Result

Final score

136 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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