FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.68 – 66.51

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.2 ±12.2

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 0.86Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 21.9Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 2.92Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405 ±10.5

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 50.07Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 8.48Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 7.96Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2534, 2068, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 2068, 9403

Auto

15.4 54%

Teleop

10.6 37%

Endgame

2.6 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 449, 4638, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 449, 4638, 2186

Auto

14.5 25%

Teleop

36.0 63%

Endgame

6.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.7pts

Blue projected score66.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.8
Score range: 9–84
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 95.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.2Season APEX405

15.4Auto14.5

10.6Teleop36

2.6Endgame6.6

81Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	24
teleop	24	115
endgame	4	68
foul	0	0
total	38	207

Result

Final score

38 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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