FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.74 – 191.22

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.3 ±12.1

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 34.68Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 32.63Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -3.57Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.2 ±9.9

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 76.76Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 86.06Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 28.4Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3373, 2363, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3373, 2363, 116

Auto

6.6 10%

Teleop

44.3 70%

Endgame

12.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 4099, 539

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 4099, 539

Auto

43.1 24%

Teleop

86.1 47%

Endgame

53.2 29%

Strengths

· 4099 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.7pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.5
Score range: 47–208
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 93.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.3Season APEX542.2

6.6Auto43.1

44.3Teleop86.1

12.2Endgame53.2

36Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	63
teleop	35	81
endgame	36	50
foul	0	15
total	79	209

Result

Final score

79 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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