FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.45 – 159.74

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.1 ±10.4

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 22.84Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 42.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 5.42Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.4 ±12.4

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 99.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 30.97Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 29.57Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 5243, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 5243, 122

Auto

12.0 17%

Teleop

43.6 63%

Endgame

13.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9072, 612, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 612, 2028

Auto

34.0 22%

Teleop

102.5 66%

Endgame

19.9 13%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.5pts

Blue projected score159.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.3
Score range: 53–177
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 93.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.1Season APEX424.4

12Auto34

43.6Teleop102.5

13.4Endgame19.9

68Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	43
teleop	46	80
endgame	27	27
foul	5	35
total	96	185

Result

Final score

96 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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