FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.53 – 34.65

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.2 ±12.2

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 32.04Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -5.46Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 5.95Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±11

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 16.83Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 6.62Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 11.2Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3258, 10449, 8326

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 10449, 8326

Auto

10.2 33%

Teleop

9.0 29%

Endgame

11.4 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2068, 2890, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 2890, 611

Auto

21.0 67%

Teleop

2.8 9%

Endgame

7.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.5pts

Blue projected score34.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 16–52
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 93.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.2Season APEX230.5

10.2Auto21

9Teleop2.8

11.4Endgame7.5

42Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	32
teleop	29	63
endgame	18	28
foul	5	0
total	68	123

Result

Final score

68 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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