FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.99 – 82.5

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.9 ±12.1

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 21.18Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 27.86Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 31.95Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±12.2

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 48.34Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 1.92Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 32.24Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8230, 539, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

81 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 539, 2363

Auto

18.9 26%

Teleop

30.6 41%

Endgame

24.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2377, 9403, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2377, 9403, 526

Auto

21.9 27%

Teleop

43.3 54%

Endgame

15.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.5
Score range: 64–100
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 92.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.9Season APEX213.5

18.9Auto21.9

30.6Teleop43.3

24.6Endgame15.5

62Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	28
teleop	50	82
endgame	41	9
foul	0	0
total	103	119

Result

Final score

103 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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