FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.85 – 57.21

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.5 ±13.3

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 16.44Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -4.66Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 12.07Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.5 ±11.6

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 31.09Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 20.59Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 5.53Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1885, 2963, 2988

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1885, 2963, 2988

Auto

6.8 51%

Teleop

-8.1 0%

Endgame

14.6 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3373, 3136, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3373, 3136, 2186

Auto

13.6 22%

Teleop

36.6 60%

Endgame

10.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.9pts

Blue projected score57.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.4
Score range: 8–73
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 90.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.5Season APEX233.5

6.8Auto13.6

-8.1Teleop36.6

14.6Endgame10.8

7Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	34	70
endgame	7	23
foul	5	15
total	57	128

Result

Final score

57 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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