FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.17 – 221.35

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±11.6

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 25.08Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -4.13Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 2.22Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.7 ±8.7

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 68.89Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 62.6Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 89.86Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 116, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.2 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 116, 2534

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

15.0 69%

Endgame

6.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 5338, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 5338, 1908

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

124.5 60%

Endgame

50.8 24%

Strengths

· 1908 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.32 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.2pts

Blue projected score221.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -198.2
Score range: 7–237
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 89.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.3Season APEX711.7

0Auto32.4

15Teleop124.5

6.8Endgame50.8

53Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	50
teleop	31	149
endgame	2	60
foul	0	0
total	42	259

Result

Final score

42 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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