FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.34 – 87.12

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 110.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.2 ±11.2

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 15.76Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 78.38Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 2.2Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.6 ±10.7

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 47.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -5Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 44.97Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2028, 4099, 5587

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 4099, 5587

Auto

34.6 36%

Teleop

52.9 55%

Endgame

9.4 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 3359, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 3359, 449

Auto

15.2 19%

Teleop

50.9 62%

Endgame

16.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.3pts

Blue projected score87.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.2
Score range: 71–112
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 87.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.2Season APEX578.6

34.6Auto15.2

52.9Teleop50.9

9.4Endgame16

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	33
teleop	113	108
endgame	24	83
foul	0	0
total	180	224

Result

Final score

180 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 110.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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