FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.07 – 78.53

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.3 ±12.2

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 4.73Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 44.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 27.85Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.8 ±12.8

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 28.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 54.58Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -4.98Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9403, 5243, 539

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9403, 5243, 539

Auto

12.7 17%

Teleop

40.9 56%

Endgame

19.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 612, 4472, 10449

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 4472, 10449

Auto

18.7 24%

Teleop

36.6 47%

Endgame

23.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.1pts

Blue projected score78.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.5
Score range: 61–95
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 87.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.3Season APEX192.8

12.7Auto18.7

40.9Teleop36.6

19.9Endgame23.3

45Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	16
teleop	47	71
endgame	25	25
foul	0	20
total	107	132

Result

Final score

107 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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