FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.27 – 124.53

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

10 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±12.2

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -4.87Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 46.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 0.37Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±11.2

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 45.21Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 86.16Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -6.84Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2534, 2377, 1793

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 2377, 1793

Auto

9.4 22%

Teleop

29.8 70%

Endgame

3.1 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5243, 1731, 2963

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5243, 1731, 2963

Auto

22.0 19%

Teleop

60.2 51%

Endgame

35.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.3pts

Blue projected score124.5pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.3
Score range: 21–146
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 69 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.1Season APEX360.5

9.4Auto22

29.8Teleop60.2

3.1Endgame35.7

67Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	2
teleop	7	39
endgame	2	18
foul	0	0
total	10	59

Result

Final score

10 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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