FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.73 – 43.79

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.2 ±12.7

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -1.57Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 23.3Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.9 ±11

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 9.45Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 26.01Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 8.33Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2963, 8230, 6882

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2963, 8230, 6882

Auto

13.3 26%

Teleop

17.9 35%

Endgame

19.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 122, 2068, 8326

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 122, 2068, 8326

Auto

16.4 39%

Teleop

25.2 60%

Endgame

0.5 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.7pts

Blue projected score43.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 28–72
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 88.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.2Season APEX289.9

13.3Auto16.4

17.9Teleop25.2

19.5Endgame0.5

9Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	22
teleop	27	6
endgame	9	7
foul	0	0
total	61	35

Result

Final score

61 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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