FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.5 – 63

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.5 ±12.2

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 17.73Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 44.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 4.85Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.8 ±11.6

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 22.32Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 8.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 32.61Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2988, 1895, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2988, 1895, 116

Auto

10.9 16%

Teleop

31.1 46%

Endgame

25.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 2186, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 2186, 3258

Auto

15.8 28%

Teleop

21.0 37%

Endgame

20.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score63pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.5
Score range: 47–84
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 77 vs event baseline 88.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.5Season APEX173.8

10.9Auto15.8

31.1Teleop21

25.5Endgame20.4

2Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	7	14
endgame	7	12
foul	0	0
total	32	45

Result

Final score

32 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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