FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.57 – 102.21

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±11.2

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 22.19Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 73.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 27.28Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.4 ±11.7

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 87.05Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -9.41Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 24.57Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2028, 1731, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 1731, 3136

Auto

20.8 18%

Teleop

64.6 56%

Endgame

30.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9072, 1793, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 1793, 5353

Auto

31.3 32%

Teleop

60.9 61%

Endgame

7.0 7%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.6pts

Blue projected score102.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.4
Score range: 86–139
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 90.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.7Season APEX350.4

20.8Auto31.3

64.6Teleop60.9

30.1Endgame7

25Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	47
teleop	111	151
endgame	68	36
foul	0	5
total	204	239

Result

Final score

204 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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