FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.55 – 71.42

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.9 ±9.9

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 30.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 40.52Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 62.58Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±12.1

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 34.64Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 24.61Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 12.17Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2363, 449, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 449, 5338

Auto

26.4 21%

Teleop

72.4 56%

Endgame

29.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 526, 3373, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 526, 3373, 1885

Auto

12.8 23%

Teleop

27.1 48%

Endgame

16.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.6pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.1
Score range: 55–150
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 88.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.9Season APEX181.6

26.4Auto12.8

72.4Teleop27.1

29.4Endgame16.1

29Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	15
teleop	119	67
endgame	11	29
foul	5	0
total	164	111

Result

Final score

164 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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