FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.93 – 109.89

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447 ±9.8

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 42.42Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 23.89Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 5.62Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±10.5

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 17.91Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 9.46Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 82.52Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5549, 620, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 620, 2890

Auto

16.4 23%

Teleop

25.2 36%

Endgame

28.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4638, 2534, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 2534, 4099

Auto

34.3 35%

Teleop

51.9 53%

Endgame

11.3 12%

Strengths

· 4099 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.9pts

Blue projected score109.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38
Score range: 56–126
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 87.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447Season APEX346.7

16.4Auto34.3

25.2Teleop51.9

28.8Endgame11.3

46Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	28
teleop	67	23
endgame	37	22
foul	0	0
total	124	73

Result

Final score

124 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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