FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.92 – 76.28

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.7 ±11.2

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 15.54Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 50.46Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 65.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.3 ±12.4

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -7.81Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 0.87Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 83.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2988, 4472, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2988, 4472, 1731

Auto

17.7 15%

Teleop

62.6 52%

Endgame

40.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2963, 9403, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2963, 9403, 9072

Auto

24.5 32%

Teleop

45.2 58%

Endgame

7.6 10%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.9pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.6
Score range: 60–148
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 86.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.7Season APEX327.3

17.7Auto24.5

62.6Teleop45.2

40.6Endgame7.6

20Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	40
teleop	46	74
endgame	81	4
foul	0	5
total	159	123

Result

Final score

159 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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