FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.03 – 32.62

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±11.1

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 34.09Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 43.58Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 9.36Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.4 ±12.2

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 18.56Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -7.28Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 21.34Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 526, 449, 8326

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 526, 449, 8326

Auto

18.5 22%

Teleop

49.1 59%

Endgame

15.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 10449, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 10449, 5353

Auto

21.5 62%

Teleop

7.6 22%

Endgame

5.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87pts

Blue projected score32.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.4
Score range: 17–103
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 86.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.1Season APEX233.4

18.5Auto21.5

49.1Teleop7.6

15.9Endgame5.6

45Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	43	47
endgame	13	8
foul	15	5
total	87	81

Result

Final score

87 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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