FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.76 – 130.23

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.5 ±11.6

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 23.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 26.6Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX -2.54Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.7 ±10.5

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 34.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 32.81Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 63.21Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2363, 6882, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 6882, 2890

Auto

12.5 27%

Teleop

14.8 32%

Endgame

19.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3258, 539, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 539, 5338

Auto

26.1 21%

Teleop

49.8 41%

Endgame

46.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score130.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.5
Score range: 33–145
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 85.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.5Season APEX376.7

12.5Auto26.1

14.8Teleop49.8

19.5Endgame46.1

80Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	28
teleop	47	69
endgame	36	32
foul	5	0
total	120	129

Result

Final score

120 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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