FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.86 – 35.72

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.1 ±10.5

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 21.67Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 84.72Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 48.47Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.5 ±12.2

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 6.34Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 23.87Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 5.51Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 611, 4099, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 4099, 2377

Auto

35.8 25%

Teleop

83.6 59%

Endgame

23.4 16%

Strengths

· 4099 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 122, 612, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 122, 612, 2534

Auto

14.8 44%

Teleop

14.4 43%

Endgame

4.1 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.9pts

Blue projected score35.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.1
Score range: 21–170
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 85.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.1Season APEX236.5

35.8Auto14.8

83.6Teleop14.4

23.4Endgame4.1

0Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	6
teleop	86	38
endgame	29	12
foul	0	15
total	170	71

Result

Final score

170 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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