FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.19 – 203.22

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.7 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 112.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 69.7Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 26.68Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.5 ±9.9

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 64.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 100.52Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 37.98Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 5338, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 5338, 4638

Auto

50.8 26%

Teleop

113.7 57%

Endgame

33.5 17%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 1908, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 1908, 5353

Auto

39.1 20%

Teleop

110.5 57%

Endgame

43.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.2pts

Blue projected score203.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6
Score range: 182–230
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 115.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.7Season APEX559.5

50.8Auto39.1

113.7Teleop110.5

33.5Endgame43.6

9Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	15
teleop	61	54
endgame	15	32
foul	5	0
total	130	101

Result

Final score

130 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.