FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.56 – 61.18

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362 ±11.1

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 14.39Rank 40Record 0-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 22.32Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 53.85Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.9 ±10.4

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 4.55Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 14.98Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 41.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 116, 1885, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 116, 1885, 5549

Auto

14.6 20%

Teleop

35.5 49%

Endgame

22.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5587, 4638, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 4638, 5243

Auto

23.4 46%

Teleop

28.1 56%

Endgame

-1.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.6pts

Blue projected score61.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.4
Score range: 46–106
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 85.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362Season APEX243.9

14.6Auto23.4

35.5Teleop28.1

22Endgame-1

7Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	5	63
endgame	0	17
foul	0	0
total	16	93

Result

Final score

16 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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