FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.16 – 105.56

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.8 ±13.3

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 28.6Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 17.41Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX -3.85Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±11.2

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 91.37Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 21.9Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -7.71Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3373, 2028, 1793

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3373, 2028, 1793

Auto

1.7 4%

Teleop

41.1 90%

Endgame

2.9 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1908, 2068, 3359

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1908, 2068, 3359

Auto

20.9 20%

Teleop

55.9 55%

Endgame

25.6 25%

Strengths

· 1908 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.2pts

Blue projected score105.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.4
Score range: 27–121
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 85.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.8Season APEX353.4

1.7Auto20.9

41.1Teleop55.9

2.9Endgame25.6

47Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	23
teleop	18	102
endgame	12	13
foul	0	0
total	37	138

Result

Final score

37 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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