FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.26 – 36.42

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.1 ±9.8

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 56.32Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 15.6Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 21.34Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.7 ±13.3

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 13.61Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX -0.56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 23.37Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5338, 3136, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5338, 3136, 620

Auto

21.6 23%

Teleop

46.4 50%

Endgame

24.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2988, 9403, 8230

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2988, 9403, 8230

Auto

5.8 18%

Teleop

7.0 22%

Endgame

19.2 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.3pts

Blue projected score36.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.8
Score range: 21–108
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 85.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.1Season APEX128.7

21.6Auto5.8

46.4Teleop7

24.6Endgame19.2

74Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	68	28
endgame	42	24
foul	0	0
total	139	68

Result

Final score

139 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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