FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.36 – 139.49

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.1 ±11.7

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -10.62Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 36.02Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 84.96Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±9.8

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 62Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 31.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 46.02Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10449, 526, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 526, 4099

Auto

29.2 27%

Teleop

60.7 57%

Endgame

17.0 16%

Strengths

· 4099 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 3258, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 3258, 1895

Auto

18.3 15%

Teleop

62.2 49%

Endgame

45.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.4pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.1
Score range: 95–154
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 84.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.1Season APEX397.6

29.2Auto18.3

60.7Teleop62.2

17Endgame45.3

97Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	28
teleop	33	87
endgame	20	52
foul	0	5
total	110	172

Result

Final score

110 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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