FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.78 – 134.16

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.7 ±11.6

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 8.45Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 49.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 15.83Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355 ±11.1

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 20.68Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 84.64Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 28.84Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8326, 4472, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 4472, 611

Auto

14.8 24%

Teleop

37.7 61%

Endgame

9.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1885, 9072, 539

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1885, 9072, 539

Auto

25.3 20%

Teleop

72.6 59%

Endgame

25.7 21%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.8pts

Blue projected score134.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.4
Score range: 59–149
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 83.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.7Season APEX355

14.8Auto25.3

37.7Teleop72.6

9.2Endgame25.7

0Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	42
teleop	46	63
endgame	31	19
foul	0	30
total	95	154

Result

Final score

95 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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