FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.65 – 98

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.8 ±11.6

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 7.87Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 6.54Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 32.24Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.3 ±11.2

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 30.8Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 3.78Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 63.42Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2534, 5587, 6882

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 5587, 6882

Auto

16.8 49%

Teleop

10.9 32%

Endgame

6.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2068, 2963, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

98 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 2963, 5549

Auto

34.0 35%

Teleop

26.0 27%

Endgame

36.5 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.7pts

Blue projected score98pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.3
Score range: 32–113
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 84.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.8Season APEX380.3

16.8Auto34

10.9Teleop26

6.9Endgame36.5

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	13	19
endgame	9	7
foul	0	0
total	41	42

Result

Final score

41 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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