FCH District Alexandria VA Event presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.53 – 29.46

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.7 ±10.5

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 36.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 81.22Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 20.91Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.6 ±12.1

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 17.39Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 17.32Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX -5.25Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5243, 1908, 3373

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5243, 1908, 3373

Auto

8.4 6%

Teleop

89.3 65%

Endgame

38.9 28%

Strengths

· 1908 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8230, 5353, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 5353, 2186

Auto

13.3 46%

Teleop

8.8 31%

Endgame

6.7 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.5pts

Blue projected score29.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.1
Score range: 14–154
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 82.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.7Season APEX172.6

8.4Auto13.3

89.3Teleop8.8

38.9Endgame6.7

35Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	27
teleop	137	46
endgame	18	15
foul	5	0
total	194	88

Result

Final score

194 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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